Consequential System Model
The consequential system model contains future electricity market compositions specific to 40 countries which together represent 76.5% of the global energy output. These mixes are based on projections from (inter-)national authorities such as the European Commission (2016) and the international Energy Agency (2016). The new markets are a significant improvement of the consequential system model and provide a consistent basis for electricity supply in consequential LCA.
For countries where no specific scenario was available (marked orange in the map), the marginal electricity mix for the Rest of the World (RoW) applies. The RoW mix is calculated using the projections for the entire world from the “current policies” scenarios of the IEA (2016) minus the sum of all country specific projections. Given the variety of the projection sources, there are some technologies which’s global electricity production according to the IEA is smaller than the sum of all the country specific scenarios for the same technologies. In these cases, the electricity production from these technologies is considered to be zero and is not part of the RoW marginal mix.
Imports are not taken into account in the composition of the consequential market mix because of the insufficient availability of consistent data. As this was already the case in previous versions, this does not subtract from the quality of the new data but it remains a limitation of the projection data.